Forrest’s Blog

First, I hope your team is in the post season! But if not (and that certainly includes Cubs and Yankees fans), just adopt another team and enjoy the games! Oh, and think about how Hank Steinbrenner must feel about the LA Dodgers advancing under Joe Torre!

BREAKING NEWS: On October 6th the Nevada Attorney General announced a settlement with Countrywide that will help borrowers facing foreclosure.  (Announcement)

What if I told you that September 2008 closed sales reached 2004-2005 levels for this time of year!  That is exactly what happened this past month and that certainly goes contrary to the normal seasonal decline that one might expect.  Well let’s start by checking out the September 2008 SFR Closings as reported by GLVAR.  September 2008 SFR Closings   Let’s be honest here - you have to love what’s happening compared to last year’s numbers! Then consider the financial and banking crisis and put these results into that perspective and you have something to really cheer about! God bless the momentum in the Las Vegas market!

Bank owned REO sales still accounted for seventy-one percent (71%) of all residential closings. The number of available listings remained level and still hovers around around that 15,000 number for single family residences. But here are some new Greater Las Vegas stats related to financing - and they are a dramatic shift from the beginning of 2008:

• Cash 15% of all closings in September
• Conv 34%
• FHA 46%
• VA 4%

These percentages are very good for the Las Vegas real estate market! Keep in mind that conventional loans end up on the secondary market through Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac.  These entities have experienced a severe liquidity problem and we have all seen how difficult it has been to obtain conventional financing even for very qualified borrowers with good FICO scores.  However, FHA and VA loans are sold on the secondary market via Ginnie Mae which has good liquidity at a time we really need it.  So the shift from conventional loans to FHA loans is exactly what the mortgage doctor ordered for our market at just the right time.  But of course good news never makes the news because good news doesn’t sell.  And be honest - you would rather read or hear about a good scandal than about something pleasant or happy!  You certainly did not pay attention to the OJ trail . . . right?

The overall numbers are looking fabulous for this time of year. So, lets first download and take a look at: September 2008 Resale Market Snapshot.

Listing prices have now dropped 27% since October 2007 while closed sales are now staying well above 2006 numbers for the same period. This is the fifth consecutive month that we have had more than 2000 single family home closings. Closed sales prices dropped nearly 7% this past month and 27% for the past year. The average Cumulative Days on Market dipped to 157 days and this market continues to carry a high number of overpriced listings in inventory. But the 30-day absorbtion rate jumped to 17.5%; compare that to 4.6% just a year ago.

So - despite all the bad news and press - you have to love the direction and course of our local Las Vegas market! Recently I saw a cartoon that read: “Due to budget cuts, the light at the end of the tunnel has been turned off”!  However, there is still plently of light ahead in the Las Vegas market.  The real question is: “are you catching your share of closings?” If not, why not?  The buyers are out there. There is plenty of available, good inventory.  Just roll up your sleeves and work this market.

But let’s stay Focused on Price Reductions and assist even more sellers by getting their listings in “The Selling Zone”!

Well . . . here’s a new acronym that we need to get accustomed to . . . FHFA (Federal Housing Finance Agency)!  So what does that mean?  You may want to read  the Statement by Secretary Henry M. Paulson, Jr. on Treasury and Federal Housing Finance Agency Action to Protect Financial Markets and Taxpayers that was made September 7, 2008.  Essentially Fannie is on her fanny and Freddie has lost credi-bility and both are in conservatorship. The stock market loved the news and gained 300 points today as a result of the move by the FHFA.  The best guess on the streets is that interest rates will drop and credit will be even tougher to obtain.  So for the moment we are left with a mix of joy and anxiety until we actually see what this move means to the Las Vegas market.

Meanwhile, the Greater Las Vegas real estate market still benefits from the momentum of closings from previous months!  Bank owned REO sales still account for nearly seventy percent (70%) of all residential closings. The number of available listings dipped somewhat, but still hovers around around that 15,000 number for single family residences.  But here are some new  Greater Las Vegas stats related to financing - and they are a dramatic shift from the beginning of 2008:

• Cash          16% of all closings in August
• Conv          39%
• FHA           39%
• VA               5%

The overall numbers are looking very good despite the fact that we are moving into the slower time of year.  So, lets first download and take a look at: August 2008 Resale Market Snapshot.

We continue to see 40% of closings selling under 90 days on the market with an average of 60 Days on Market. The remaining 60% still suffer an average of 230 Days on Market.

Listing prices have now dropped 25% since September 2007 while closed sales are now staying nicely above 2006 numbers for the same period. Again the is the fourth consecutive month that we have had more than 2000 single family home closings.  Closed sales prices dropped just over 1% this past month while list prices declined nearly 3%.  At the same time overall inventory generally held constant. The average Cumulative Days on Market is still 162 days and this market continues to carry a high number of overpriced listings in inventory. Yet the 30-day absorbtion rates in the 16.5-17% range are a welcome sight, especially when compared to the same time last year!

The current momentum continues to set a good tone for the balance of 2008. (See SFR Sales Trends 2004 - 2008). In fact, it’s looking like that the remainder of 2008 may trend above the same period for 2006, even with a normal seasonal downturn in closings.  Finally - despite all the bad news and press - you have to love the direction and course of our local Las Vegas market!

But let’s stay Focused on Price Reductions and assist even more sellers by getting their listings in “The Selling Zone”!

The Greater Las Vegas real estate market has sustained the momentum that we have witnessed these past several months!  We continue to purge this market of a great deal of bank owned property.  Bank owned REO sales accounted for nearly seventy percent (70%) of all residential closings. The number of available listings is holding steady and again July closings were close to 20% above the June numbers.

Great, so let’s dive right into the positive news and numbers this month . . . but first download and take a look at: July 2008 Resale Market Snapshot.  

We still see many more properties listed “in the selling zone” and selling in a relative short timeframe while those “out of the selling zone” continue to age in MLS without selling. Approximately 40% of July 2008 closings (those in the selling zone at listing) were under 90 days on the market with an average of 60 Days on Market.  The remaining 60% suffered an average of 230 Days on Market (that’s nearly 8 months … definitely out of the selling zone).

Listing prices have now dropped 23% since September 2007 while closed sales are up 194% since their low in December. June closed sales represent another 18% improvement over June; more importantly, this is the third month since August 2006 that we have witnessed more than 2000 single family home closings. Closed sales prices dropped another 5% in the past month; that means that closed sales prices continue to decline faster than listing prices . At the same time overall inventory generally held constant. The average Cumulative Days on Market is still 163 days and this market continues to carry a high number of overpriced listings in inventory.  Yet the very best news is that July closings represents a seventeen percent (17%) 30-day absorbtion rate; compare that to 4.9% in December 2007!

The current momentum has certainly set a good tone for the balance of 2008.  (See SFR Sales Trends 2004 - 2008). In fact, it’s looking like that the remainder of 2008 may trend above the same period for 2006, even with a normal seasonal downturn in closings.  This may be far from a full recovery, but we’re now moving in the right direction!

But let’s stay Focused on Price Reductions and assist even more sellers by getting their listings in “The Selling Zone”!

ON AUGUST 1, 2008 THE MLS IMPLEMENTED A NEW PROPERTY TYPE “VERTICAL”

The Vertical Property Type will be geared to high rise units and specific amenities they provide. See the new “Vertical Data Form“. You may use the new property type for existing high rise listings by withdrawing them from Residential Condo and re-listing them under Vertical.  Of course, you will need proper paperwork to effect the withdrawal and subsequent new listing. 

Effective August 1, 2008 all new high rise listings should be entered into the new Vertical Property Type in lieu of utilizing the Condo subtype under Residential.  This has been worked on for quite a while and I know that many of you are anxious to be able to place your listings in this new area.  If you have additional questions or would like additional information please contact the MLS Department at 702-784-5050.

When you enter a high-rise listing into the new Vertical property type, you will be able to specify the project and tower name and with other specific information that is unique to these structures.  For example, there is a place to indicate that the building is either “Green Certified” or “LEED Certified” should the building meet certain specified energy standards.  For more information on LEED Certification, go to:  http://www.usgbc.org/

One last thing . . . For some interim period of time you may dual list your high-rise in both the Residential Condo property type along with placing it in the new Vertical property type.  That will allow you to avoid withdrawing it from Residential Condo until we are notified otherwise.

Again you really have to be motivated by this month’s resale closing stats for the Greater Las Vegas real estate market!  It is clear that  we are moving a great deal of bank owned property off the market.  This month sixty-five percent (65%) of all residential closings were REO properties; seventy-two percent (72%) if you include short sale closings.  The number of available listings is holding while the closings are very nicely up again and the inventory is taking about the same time to sell.

Great, so let’s dive right into the positive news and numbers this month . . . but first download and take a look at: June 2008 Resale Market Snapshot.

Increasingly again, more and more properties are coming on the market “in the selling zone” and selling in a relative short timeframe while those “out of the selling zone” continue to age in MLS without selling. Approximately 36% of June 2008 closings (those in the selling zone at listing) were under 90 days on the market with an average of 60 Days on Market. That is up from 25% based on March closings. The remaining 64% suffered an average of 230 Days on Market (that’s nearly 8 months … definitely out of the selling zone).

Listing prices have now dropped 19.5% since September 2007 while closed sales are up 149% since their low in December.  June closed sales represent another 5% improvement over May; more importantly, this is the only the second month since August 2006 that we have witnessed more than 2000 single family home closings. Closed sales prices dropped another 5% in the past month; that means that closed sales prices continue to decline faster than listing prices . At the same time overall inventory generally held constant. The average Cumulative Days on Market is still 169 days despite the fact that many overpriced listings remain in inventory.

June closings mays still set the tone for the balance of 2008.  This is the first time since 2006 that June closings were above the May closings!  So at the very least June has given this market some momentum going into the summer months! You really have to love that!

But even with all the good news, let’s stay Focused on Price Reductions!